WASHINGTON, Nov 2 (Reuters) – Wall Street and financial market players are watching this year’s US midterm elections for more than which party controls Congress.
A handful of unusually competitive races could determine the fortunes of some of the financial industry’s biggest political allies and adversaries, and help shape policy on cryptocurrency, credit cards, financial regulation and the artificial-intelligence investment boom.
The stakes extend beyond legislative policy in Washington.
A victory in one or both chambers of Congress would hand Democrats powerful tools that they plan to use to probe a range of financial companies and their regulators, Reuters has reported. A clutch of gubernatorial races, meanwhile, could determine trillions of dollars of artificial intelligence infrastructure investment.
Here are the midterm races financial firms and investors are watching closely, according to analysts and industry executives.
OHIO SENATE RACE – SENATOR JON HUSTED VS. SHERROD BROWN
Veteran Wall Street critic and crypto skeptic Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is seeking to return to the Senate after losing his seat in 2024. This time he faces Republican US Senator Jon Husted, who replaced former Senator JD Vance, an Ohio Republican, when he became vice president.
Cryptocurrency groups have spent more than $50 million to defeat Brown, making the race one of the most expensive and closely watched tests of the industry’s growing political clout.
Brown had served 18 years in the Senate before losing his seat. If Democrats win the Senate and grant Brown seniority based on his prior service, Brown could have a shot at again leading the Senate Banking Committee, which oversees financial regulators, or a prominent role on the Agriculture Committee, which oversees some crypto policy issues. That would give him a prominent perch from which to scrutinize those sectors.
Recent polls show Brown leading by as many as 5 points or tied. Prediction markets on Friday priced a Brown victory at 69.5%.
KANSAS SENATE RACE – SENATOR ROGER MARSHALL VS. ADAM HAMILTON
Though Kansas has not historically been a political battleground, the climate has shifted in favor of Democrats so much that Republican Senator Roger Marshall is now in a close race against his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton.
While Wall Street usually favors Republicans, who often favor light-touch regulation and enforcement, Marshall has been a leading proponent of legislation capping the “swipe fees” banks can charge retailers for credit card transactions.
Banks have for years fought such caps, which could hurt their profits, and have grown increasingly worried that the issue is one of the few that unites Democrats and Republicans.
A recent poll has Hamilton leading narrowly. Prediction markets on Friday priced a Marshall victory at 55%.
TEXAS SENATE RACE – JAMES TALARICO VS. KEN PAXTON
Among the most expensive Senate races in history, the close contest between Texas Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico in the populous conservative stronghold is widely seen as a test of Democrats’ ability to make inroads in traditionally Republican territory. A Talarico victory would mark the first Democratic win in a statewide Texas race in decades.
Paxton himself, meanwhile, has had a tumultuous history with Wall Street, cracking down on banks and asset managers he accused of “woke” left-leaning lending and investment policies. Paxton led multistate investigations into multiple Wall Street companies over their climate and diversity policies, in some cases suing.
Recent polls show Talarico leading by between 2 and 8 points. Prediction markets on Friday priced a Talarico victory at 66.8%.
NEBRASKA SENATE RACE – SENATOR PETE RICKETTS VS. DAN OSBORN
In another close Midwestern race, Republican Senator Pete Ricketts faces challenger Dan Osborn, an independent. Ricketts sits on the Senate Banking Committee, where he has supported crypto-friendly legislation, and the crypto industry has put money into his race, Politico reported.
Ricketts also has ties to the financial industry, having previously served on the board of TD Ameritrade, which his father founded. Meanwhile, Osborn, a former labor union leader, has also criticized swipe fees, calling them a “scam” that imposes unfair costs on small businesses and communities.
Recent polls show the race is a toss-up. Prediction markets on Friday priced a Ricketts victory at 71.7%.
GUBERNATORIAL RACES THAT COULD SHAPE AI SPENDING PLANS
Surging public opposition to data centers has become a flashpoint during the midterms, with a strong Democratic showing potentially hampering the buildout that has lifted stocks.
The oversight that state and local authorities have over data center planning and permitting means investors will be unusually focused on state races. According to Beacon Policy Advisors, 10 governors’ races next week will determine the course of $2.5 trillion in planned investment.
Among them, Beacon highlighted Texas, Georgia and Ohio as the most competitive gubernatorial races whose candidates have the most diverging views on the issues and where there are the most projects in the pipeline. Strategists at investment bank Morgan Stanley flagged those, as well as the Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan gubernatorial races, as ones to watch.
HOUSE FINANCIAL SERVICES COMMITTEE MEMBER RACES
US Representative French Hill, an Arkansas Republican and former banker, currently chairs the House Financial Services Committee, which oversees financial regulators and leads on Wall Street policy issues. Hill, who has supported bank-friendly policies, is in a tight race against Democrat Chris Jones. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently added Hill’s seat to its list of Republican-held districts it hopes to flip.
Another contest on the crypto industry’s radar is the race between US Representative Sean Casten, an Illinois Democrat, and Republican businesswoman Niki Conforti. Casten has been a vocal proponent of probing the Trump administration’s crypto ties and of tougher crypto rules. Punchbowl News reported last month that Casten had weighed challenging Representative Maxine Waters, currently the top Democrat on the committee, for the chair if Democrats win the House.
(Reporting by Pete Schroeder; Additional reporting by Lewis Krauskopf, Nolan D. McCaskill and Andy Sullivan; Editing by Michelle Price and Alistair Bell)
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