They were there from the very beginning and they’ll be together again Sunday night at Lambeau Field as the Green Bay Packers welcome the Chicago Bears for the 204th meeting of the National Football League’s oldest, and unquestionably, best rivalry. The Packers have 13 NFL Championships on their resume, the Bears have the second most with 9. The two franchises have combined to place over 50 players and coaches in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. The All-Time series favors Green Bay with 101 victories, to 94 with six games tied. They’ve split two playoff games, Chicago winning the 1941 Western Division Playoff 33-14 while the Packers captured their most recent NFC Championship with a 21-14 win in the Windy City a decade ago. This game is the very essence of professional football.
So how will the next chapter play out when it kicks off at 7:20 PM CST?
When the Packers have the ball.
While not quite the Monsters of the Midway when Dick Butkus or Brian Urlacher were manning the middle at linebacker, this year’s Chicago defense is still the strength of the 4-8 team. Chicago ranks 9th in yards allowed per game and they are 6th best in defending the pass giving up 207.8 yards on average. While the tundra hasn’t completely frozen over, it’s still December football and my guess is the Packers will put a heavy emphasis on the running game. Aaron Jones returned from and MCL sprain against the Rams and has had the bye week to get the knee even stronger and A.J. Dillon has become the battering ram Green Bay was expecting when they drafted him in the second round last year. Running it right at the Bears front, minus Khalil Mack now on injured reserve will do two things, keep the chains favorable and put less stress on the still mending left pinkie toe of Aaron Rodgers. He’s fared remarkably well in spite of the injury during the three games before the bye and said this week the time off has really hastened the healing.
There will be some juggling of the wide receivers against the Chicago secondary after the Packers took a shot at the slot with Randall Cobb’s core muscle surgery on Thursday. Head Coach Matt LaFleur said they’ll deploy a combination of receivers in the slot, Allen Lazard, possibly Equanimeous St. Brown, rookie Amari Rodgers and even Davante Adams from time to time. Regardless of alignment, the route combinations will have to be quick and precise to keep the Bears’ still formidable pass rush at bay. Robert Quinn has racked up 11 sacks in 12 games and the Akiem Hicks, Eddie Goldman tandem up front can squeeze the pocket quickly. Keep passes and roll outs have been reduced to limit the amount of movement for Rodgers on the bum toe but this might be the week to stretch those limits a little more.
The Adams-Jaylon Johnson matchup will be one to watch as the second year corner plays aggressively which could get him in trouble against Davante’s expert route running.
Red zone finishing will be important as always but early drives which end in touchdowns only increases the pressure on Chicago’s feeble offense to keep up and they probably won’t be able to.
When the Bears have the ball.
Getting Justin Fields back at quarterback after missing two weeks with a broken rib will give Chicago five more weeks to assess their future at the position. While a gifted athlete, Fields has had a hard time grasping the complexity of NFL defenses, relying on his legs more than his arm or his head to compensate. His rookie year passer rating is at 79, completing just 58% of his passes and he’s thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns (8 to 4). While he can escape pressure, he’s also been caught by it, enduring 31 sacks. Chicago, like Green Bay, will be ground oriented with David Montgomery back. He missed the first meeting in October and is just getting revved up. He has 566 yards in 8 games and last week against Arizona, put up 141 total yards, 90 on the ground and another 51 on 8 receptions. He will be the focal point for sure. The Packers have been doing a decent job of late containing the run even while deploying a light box. That’s designed to protect themselves from the dangerous passing attacks they’ve faced recently in Minnesota and Los Angeles. I’m not sure than danger exists with the Bears, even with Allen Robinson likely to return after missing three weeks and Darnell Mooney, the team’s leading receiver with 51 catches, on the perimeter.
Look for the Packers to put even more emphasis on neutralizing Montgomery and his capable backup in rookie Khalil Herbert, forcing Fields to try and beat them through the air with still sore ribs and on a cold night.
Chicago’s offensive line fares much better pushing forward versus backing up to protect, allowing 40 sacks total this year. Preston Smith and Rashan Gary need strong games to collapse the edge without giving Fields a gap to escape.
Sound coverage downfield could give the secondary a chance to make more big plays. While Rasul Douglas had the huge pick six against the Rams, the defensive backs easily could have had 2 or 3 more picks against Matthew Stafford, a veteran quarterback. A kid three months into his career might be even more generous.
The bottom line.
Granted the Packers are 0-2 coming off the bye under LaFleur but both those games were on the road, in San Francisco in 2019 against the team that eventually ended their season in the NFC title game, and last year it was in Tampa where the Buccaneers did the same thing in the rematch at home. The Packers have lost 4 straight total after a week’s rest but this time it’s at home and against the Bears. The last time Chicago was the post-bye opponent, Green Bay blew their doors off 55-14 in 2014. I’m not saying that will happen again but the Packers are closing in on a third straight division title and the Bears, while they’ll put up a good fight, are closing in on perhaps the end of the Matt Nagy era.
I like the Pack, 23-16.
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