By Nina Chestney
LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) – Countries which are prioritising energy security over climate goals could produce lower emissions as they accelerate electrification, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said in its latest Energy Transition Outlook.
• The report modelled five scenarios for warming, spanning 1.5 degrees Celsius to 3 C, with a base case of a 2.6 C global average temperature rise by the end of the century.
• Prakash Sharma, vice president, head of scenarios and technologies at Wood Mackenzie, said one of the most striking findings was that a security-first energy strategy, pursued not out of climate intent but out of necessity, can deliver lower emissions than the central base case.
• The Middle East conflict has restricted global oil and liquefied natural gas flows and pushed crude oil above $100 a barrel. Major economies are trying to accelerate their shift from fossil fuel imports, deploying electrification, renewables and nuclear to reduce their exposure to supply chain disruption. This trend could result in warming of 2.5 C by 2100, the outlook showed.
• However, if countries prioritise economic expansion above all else to meet growing demand for electricity and artificial intelligence, warming could rise to above 3 C as existing fossil fuel assets are extended and plant retirements delayed.
• The transition represents a cumulative investment opportunity of $147 trillion to $189 trillion to 2060, with electrification and grid infrastructure accounting for roughly half of capital deployed, the report said.
• Solar, wind and battery capacity are set to surge 60% by 2030 and sixfold by 2060 in the base case scenario, while nuclear is seeing a global revival. Global power demand is on track to double by 2060, driven by electrification, industrial growth and data centre expansion.
(Reporting by Nina Chestney; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
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