BEIJING, March 3 (Reuters) – China will unveil its next five-year plan at its annual parliamentary meeting, which kicks off on Thursday, setting out Beijing’s ambitions for the economy and which sectors are lined up for funding and policy support.
While specific measures or implementation details are rarely laid out, the document guides policymaking and signals how the world’s largest consumer of commodities intends to steer its economy.
Here’s what to look out for in commodities:
CLIMATE AND POWER
Climate advocates hope the plan sets out tighter controls on China’s total carbon emissions, which Beijing has committed to peak by 2030 without specifying at what level.
The massive renewable energy rollout making that possible will continue, but with an emphasis on transmission lines and green energy consumption targets to better integrate energy into the grid and stop curtailment, when energy goes to waste, say analysts.
They do not expect the plan to take a strong stance against coal-fired generation, with record construction under the current plan in part sparked by power shortages in 2021.
“In a time when a large part of China’s population is struggling financially, making an entire industry disappear might entail a political cost that Beijing is not yet willing to shoulder,” Berlin-based MERICS think tank analyst Johanna Krebs wrote in a research note.
Also in focus is the level of support for alternative fuels, such as sustainable aviation fuel and green hydrogen, which China continues to invest in despite a pullback elsewhere.
OIL AND GAS
Domestic production hit a record last year after a seven-year campaign to reverse declining oil output. With output set to peak again soon, the next five-year plan may signal how Beijing intends to respond.
It will also signal how Beijing thinks about the coming peak in oil consumption. The National Energy Administration said in December that China should push for a peak in the upcoming five-year plan.
Natural gas is likely to continue to be a priority, with researchers at Sinopec and CNPC think tanks forecasting average annual growth of 5% over the course of the next plan.
CRITICAL MINERALS
China parlayed its control over rare earths into a trade war truce with the U.S. last year. The current five-year plan mentions rare earths once, but with Washington and its allies moving to build alternative supply chains, watch for clues to China’s response.
Domestic production and stockpiling will also be in focus. China flagged a new push to grow both in proposals published last October. In February, there was a rare public announcement about studying a commercial stockpiling system for copper.
There may also be new policies relating to the vast scrap market, where China set up a new state-backed group to consolidate the sector in late 2024.
OVERCAPACITY
Known as “fanneijuan,” or anti-involution, this year’s plan will guide officials on how to tackle the overhang of capacity in industries ranging from steel and copper to pork.
For China’s giant steel industry, look for stricter rules on new or replacement capacity, potentially tying production to carbon emissions, given the sector is now in the national carbon market.
There’s been chatter for the past year or so about overcapacity for copper smelters and refiners too, so watch for signals policymakers intend to do more.
FOOD SECURITY
China has many mouths to feed but an agricultural sector without the scale and technological sophistication of producers like the United States or Brazil. Expect to see more effort to change that, according to Even Pay, a director at policy research group Trivium China.
The future of genetically modified crops will also be in focus. Long discussed in China, GM varieties have not been adopted at scale due to high prices and resistance from both farmers and consumers.
Analysts will also watch for signals about initiatives to further the long-running goal to reduce China’s vulnerability to imported soybeans and other grains, whether by reducing their use in animal feed or diversifying import sources.
(Reporting by Lewis Jackson, Amy Lv, Colleen Howe, Sam Li, Daphne Zhang and Ella Cao in Beijing and Dylan Duan in Shanghai; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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