By Gwladys Fouche and Tom Little
OSLO (Reuters) -Norwegians went to the polls on Sunday for the first of two days of voting in a close race between a left-wing bloc led by the incumbent Labour Party and a right-wing bloc headed by the populist Progress Party and the Conservatives.
At least nine political parties are expected to win seats in the parliamentary election which ends on Monday evening, but only the leaders of the three major parties are candidates for prime minister.
Key issues in the campaign have included the cost of living, taxation and public services, and the outcome could have an impact on energy and power supplies to Europe as well as the management of Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
Geopolitics have loomed large with voters, and analysts said this could benefit Labour and its leader, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, a former foreign minister who presents himself as a safe pair of hands.
Labour and four smaller parties are seen winning 88 seats in Norway’s parliament, three more than the minimum needed to secure a majority and down from a combined 100 seats for the left in 2021, according to an average of recent opinion polls.
The Progress Party and the Conservative Party, along with two smaller groups, are on course to win the remaining 81 seats, but the difference in opinion polls between the left and the right blocs remains well within the margin of error.
TUTTI FRUTTI COALITION
Since 2021, Stoere has needed the backing of the agrarian Centre Party and the Socialist Left to support his agenda, but polls show he may need to widen the scope to include the Communist party and the Greens.
“The most likely scenario is that Stoere gets re-elected, but this will be a ‘tutti frutti’ coalition, which will be going in very different directions,” said Jonas Stein, an associate professor in political science at the university of Tromsoe.
Demands from Greens and Communists may include tougher restrictions on oil and gas exploration, more tax on the wealthy and high earners, and more overall spending from Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest.
The return to power of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s war in Ukraine have been particular sources of anxiety in Norway, a nation of 5.6 million people with an export-oriented economy and a shared border with Russia in the Arctic.
Labour is seen winning some 27% of the vote, this month’s pollofpolls.no average showed, which would make it the biggest party.
Kristin Tellefsen, 50, a high school teacher speaking to Reuters in Oslo on Saturday, said equality and integration were her top priorities, adding she considered that the prime minister was doing a great job.
“Stoere is a huge resource for this country,” Tellefsen said.
In the right-wing camp, former prime minister Erna Solberg’s Conservatives have campaigned for public sector reform and scrapping Norway’s wealth tax, which they say unfairly targets business ownership.
But as in other Western countries, voters are increasingly turning to more populist right-wing options. Sylvi Listhaug’s anti-immigration Progress Party is currently polling around 21% of the vote, comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on 14%.
Solberg and Listhaug have openly disagreed on who should be the next prime minister in the case of a right-wing victory, leaving some voters wary of backing either of the two.
(Reporting by Gwladys Fouche and Tom Little, writing by Terje Solsvik, editing by Christina Fincher)
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