By Nicolás Misculin
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina’s supreme court has effectively banned former president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner from government, a move that poses both a challenge and an opportunity for the opposition Peronist party ahead of crunch midterm elections this year.
The court upheld a six-year jail term against Kirchner for graft on Tuesday, barring one of the country’s most high-profile politicians from holding public office.
In the short-term, the decision may enable libertarian President Javier Milei to cement his power base in the October midterm vote, but over the long run it could help revamp the Peronist movement, which was Argentina’s most powerful political bloc for decades before being ousted by outsider Milei in 2023.
Kirchner, a two-term president from 2007-2015 and a senator and vice president from 2019-2023, faces the possibility of jail time. She will likely be able to push for house arrest because of her age, 72, and the court will decide within five working days whether to grant that request.
But she will not be able to run as a legislative candidate in the midterm elections in the province of Buenos Aires, a Peronist stronghold, as she had planned.
Nonetheless, the leftist Kirchner, the president and one of the leaders of the Peronist party, may still be able to pull political strings given her strong popular support, especially if she remains out of jail.
“Cristina will continue her political career; that’s why she’s choosing to stay in Buenos Aires, in her department of San José,” a source close to the former president told Reuters.
Kirchner did not respond to a Reuters interview request.
‘MARTYRED LEADER’
Peronists are divided over whether her political ban will help the movement reinvent itself or if she will cast an even longer shadow than before, hurting up-and-comers like Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof who have clashed with her.
“This is detrimental to the renewal, because she’s now the martyred leader. She’s the center of attention,” said a source from Kicillof’s Buenos Aires provincial government.
Kirchner still enjoys significant popular support from close to 30% of the population, polls show, although she is highly divisive – in part due to the corruption cases against her – and would likely struggle to win election.
Analysts said that the court ruling could ultimately allow for the party’s modernization, at a time some of its leaders, like Kicillof, claim Peronism as a movement is being banished.
“For Peronism, it represents the possibility of renewal. Kicillof is playing the victim and, at the same time, becoming independent,” said political scientist Andrés Malamud.
The ban against Kirchner will take some of the sting out of her bitter rivalry with Milei, but a new more moderate challenger from the Peronist left could hurt the Argentine president if he slips up.
“If Milei can keep the economy steady, nothing will happen, but if this doesn’t work, it will probably strengthen Kicillof,” said analyst Mariel Fornoni from consultancy Management & Fit.
The latest polls showed a tie in the important province of Buenos Aires between Milei’s La Libertad Avanza and the Peronist opposition for the midterm elections, according to data from the Electoral Observatory.
Victory would not give the ruling party a majority in either chamber of Argentina’s Congress, but a larger number of legislators would make it easier for the government to approve privatizations of public companies and tax and labor reforms.
“Cristina’s conviction gives the government a campaign argument it didn’t have. Now it won’t need to discuss the economic model,” said the Buenos Aires government source.
(Reporting by Nicolás Misculin, with additional reporting by Lucila Sigal; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Nia Williams)
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