While a week three matchup usually doesn’t equate to a full season’s turning point, the 1-1 Green Bay Packers host the 2-0 New Orleans Saints on Sunday in the Lambeau Field opener, and this one just might qualify.
A young team learned a hard lesson last Sunday in Atlanta, coughing up a 24-12, fourth quarter lead, falling 25-24. How Matt LaFleur’s club applies the painful lessons from all three phases could go a long way toward meeting or exceeding expectations come January. I’d argue it’s better to have that happen early rather than later.
It will be a shorthanded offense going up against the stingiest and most dangerous defense so far. The Packers defense should come into this one angry and ready to show they can neutralize an opponent’s strength and control the outcome.
History is on their side, the Packers are 10-3 all time at home against the Big Easy visitors. They haven’t gone 1-2 after their first three since 2014. There will be a lot of history in the stadium as dozens of alumni from the Glory Years through the Super Bowl winners in 1996 and 2010 will be on hand. Since LaFleur took over, the Packers are an NFL best 27-6 (.818) at home.
When the Packers have the ball.
Considering Jordan Love has been without his top two playmakers and arguably the best left side of an offensive line for much of the first two games, the offense has still been able to produce points. Love has the highest passer rating in the league (118.8) with an NFL high six touchdown passes without throwing an interception. Aaron Jones who missed the Atlanta game and Christian Watson who has yet to debut this year, are recovering from hamstring injuries. Both saw limited practice time this week but will be questionable at best. Elgton Jenkins is out for the next couple of weeks with a left MCL sprain and David Bakhtiari’s status from week to week is anybody’s guess these days. Love will be facing an attacking and aggressive defense, one that finished in the top 10 of five categories last year despite winning only seven games. They have game changing talent at every level. Cameron Jordan, even in his 30’s, brings heat off the edge and he’ll severely challenge Rasheed Walker and Royce Newman if that’s the left side combination. Demario Davis was a big acquisition from the Jets at linebacker and even without starting safety Marcus Maye (3 game suspension), the Saints have two excellent players in the back end in Marshon Lattimore and Tyrann Mathieu. The game plan might have to be content with limited chances to strike over the top, particularly if Watson remains out. The team’s 3.3 yards per rushing attempt will have to improve (A.J. Dillon is just 2.6 on a team high 28 carries). Newman told me this week they’ve just not been able to get the home run block to spring explosive gains on the ground. The return of Jones would be a big help. With manageable third down distances, Love has for the most part, been able to move the chains (48.0 %). That will have to continue or the Saints will bring pressure against a protection unit that has held up so far (only 2 sacks allowed), and that could allow the aggressive secondary to make plays on the ball. New Orleans has 7 sacks and three interceptions and they’ve given up only one touchdown in their first two games, that came in the closing minutes of last week’s win at Carolina when the game was not in doubt. Even with inexperienced receivers, LaFleur’s game plans have created opportunities for Jayden Reed Dontayvion Wicks and Luke Musgrave. Creativity and execution will be required to come close to Green Bay’s 31 points per game average.
When the Saints have the ball.
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry is everyone’s whipping boy after the showing in Atlanta but there was plenty of blame to go around with the players on the field. Over eager edge contain caught the Packers time and again with a strong run blocking offensive line and an extremely talented back in Bijan Robinson. When proper gaps were filled, tackles were missed. Jaire Alexander had an unusually soft game against the run and pass. Thankfully, New Orleans is coming with almost a one dimensional offense out of the gate. Alvin Kamara is finishing his three game suspension this weekend and former Packers favorite Jamaal Williams is nursing a hamstring and hasn’t practiced all week. That leaves the ground attack to Tony Jones Jr. who found the end zone twice last week but he averaged only three yards a carry. The x-factor on the ground is former Green Bay training camp sensation Taysom Hill. Barry said this week it’s like preparing for two separate offenses when he enters the game. Hill has been an under center quarterback, wildcatter, running back, fullback and tight end for New Orleans. He leads the team in rushing with 79 yards on just 12 carries (6.5 average). While Hill can hurt defenses, he doesn’t really kill them. Derek Carr has moved from Las Vegas to Nola and while he has put up pedestrian numbers (80.2 rating, 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions), he has grabbed hold of the leadership required of the position. He has two very good weapons in veteran Michael Thomas and second year pro Chris Olave. If the not so scary run game can be controlled, I believe the Packers secondary has the ability to prevent that receiving tandem from breaking loose. The Saints offensive line has already given up 8 sacks and there’s enough pass rush coming from the Pack to make Carr earn every throw downfield. The Saints have scored 16 and 20 points in their two victories against defenses with lesser overall talent than Green Bay. If production matches that talent, I’m hard pressed to believe New Orleans will suddenly soar into the high 20’s without a couple of very big plays.
The bottom line.
Tough as it will be for the Packers on offense, I think the energy supplied from the home crowd will keep them engaged long enough to make more plays against the New Orleans defense than the Saints offense can make against the Packer D.
I like the Pack, 23-17.
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