LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production for 2022 is lowered from last month as higher broiler and turkey production in the fourth quarter is more than offset by lower beef and pork. Changes reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is lowered slightly based on production and flock data. For 2023, the beef forecast is raised with higher expected slaughter of steers and heifers, as well as cows and bulls. This increase is slightly offset by lower carcass weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2023 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd. Pork production is raised reflecting pig crop data for the second half of 2022 and producer intentions for sow farrowing in the first half of 2023. Broiler production is reduced for the first quarter based on recent hatchery data. Turkey production is raised for the first quarter based on hatchery data. Egg production is reduced on a slower expected pace of recovery. Beef export estimates for 2022 are lowered and imports are unchanged on recent trade data. For 2023, beef imports are raised, largely on higher expected imports from Brazil, but the export forecast is unchanged. Pork imports for 2022 are lowered, but exports are unchanged. For 2023, pork imports are lowered, but exports are raised. Broiler exports in 2022 are raised on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are lowered for both 2022 and 2023. Price estimates for 2022 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2023, cattle prices are raised on expected strength in demand for fed cattle. Hog prices are raised in the middle quarters of 2023 reflecting demand strength. Broiler prices are projected lower as weaker prices in late 2022 are expected to carry over into 2023. Turkey and egg prices for 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies. Milk production for 2022 is lowered from last month with lower expected milk per cow. The 2023 production forecast is lowered with a smaller expected average cow inventory for the year; output per cow is unchanged from last month. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the breeding herd. Driven by recent trade data, fat basis imports for 2022 are unchanged with offsetting changes for a number of products, but skim-solids basis imports are raised on expected demand for milk proteins. Strength in milk protein demand is expected to carry into 2023 and the forecast for skim-solids imports is also raised. Fat basis imports for 2023 are unchanged. Exports on a fat basis for 2022 are raised, largely on butter and cheese with stronger expected butter exports supporting an increased forecast for 2023. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 on stronger cheese and lactose shipments. The 2023 forecast is raised on stronger skim milk powder exports. For 2022, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2023, the price forecasts for all components are lower with expectations of weak domestic demand and price pressure in international markets. Forecasts for Class III and Class IV prices are lowered. The 2022 all milk price forecast is lowered to $25.55 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is lowered to $21.60 per cwt.
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