By Gwladys Fouche, Nora Buli and Tom Little
OSLO (Reuters) -Norwegians head to the polls on Sunday and Monday to elect a new parliament, in what is a close race between a left-wing bloc led by the incumbent Labour Party and a right-wing bloc dominated by the anti-immigration Progress Party and the Conservatives.
Centre-left parties – Labour, the Socialist Left, the Communists, the Centre Party and the Greens – are currently seen winning 87 seats, just two more than needed to secure a majority, according to an average of polls conducted this month by pollofpolls.no.
Key issues in the election campaign have included the cost of living, taxation and public services, and the outcome could have an impact on energy and power supplies to Europe and the management of Norway’s $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund.
But geopolitics has also loomed unusually large with voters this time round, and analysts said this could benefit Labour and its leader, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere, a former foreign minister who presents himself as a safe pair of hands.
“The Labour Party is really benefiting from a rally-around-the-government effect, given the sort of unstable international situation, and also has a good reputation for taking care of Norway’s economy,” Johannes Bergh, head of the national election studies programme at the Oslo-based Institute for Social Research, told Reuters.
The return to power of U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s war in Ukraine have been particular sources of anxiety in Norway, a nation of 5.6 million people with an export-oriented economy and a shared border with Russia in the Arctic.
Some 59% of Norwegians believe a new armed conflict in Europe is likely within the next decade, up from 55% last year, according to a survey by the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
Labour has also been boosted by Stoere’s decision to bring back former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg as finance minister in February – a move dubbed “Stoltenback” in Norwegian media. Stoltenberg, a friend and ally of Stoere, is arguably Norway’s most popular politician and a three-term prime minister.
Labour is seen winning some 26.5% of the vote, this month’s pollofpolls.no average showed, which would make it the biggest party.
DIVIDED RIGHT
In the right-wing camp, former prime minister Erna Solberg’s Conservatives have campaigned for public sector reform and scrapping Norway’s wealth tax, which they say unfairly targets business ownership.
But as in other Western countries, some voters are increasingly turning to more populist right-wing options. Sylvi Listhaug’s Progress Party is currently polling around 22% of the vote, comfortably ahead of the Conservatives on 14.5%.
“(Listhaug) has managed to identify what you may call the zeitgeist around public over-spending, and returned to more libertarian roots in the Progress Party, which has always been critical of public spending and in favour of lower taxes,” said Jonas Stein, an associate professor in political science at the University of Tromsoe.
Given how tight the electoral race is, the final outcome could well hinge on the performance of the five smaller parties – the Greens, the Socialist Left and the Communists on the left, and the Liberals and Christian Democrats on the right.
That could also mean greater influence for voters with specific concerns such as the war in Gaza or climate change.
In August, the Israeli investments of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund dominated campaigning, while one poll suggests the Greens have seen a recent surge in support to 7.1%.
“Just minor changes from now until election day can really determine the outcome of the election,” said Bergh.
(Reporting by Gwladys Fouche, Nora Buli and Tom Little in OsloEditing by Gareth Jones)
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