By Brenda Goh and Nick Carey
SHANGHAI/LONDON (Reuters) -BYD, China’s No. 1 automaker, aims to sell half of its vehicles outside the Chinese market by 2030, a massive increase that would make it a rival to the world’s largest automakers, according to four people familiar with the matter.
The growth would be fueled by expansion in Europe and Latin America, the people said, even as BYD and all other Chinese brands remain locked out the U.S. market by trade barriers.
BYD executives have outlined the 2030 target to investors in small groups since late last year, emphasizing its Europe expansion as pivotal to hitting the target, according to one of the people familiar with the discussions.
That goal is a heavy lift even for a company with BYD’s dizzying growth rate. Its home market of China accounted for nearly nine of every 10 vehicles of the 4.27 million vehicles BYD sold last year.
It was unclear whether the sales target communicated to investors included a number for total global sales in 2030.
A second person with knowledge of BYD’s global target, who attended a private event with BYD executives in Shanghai during last month’s auto show, said its confidence stems from its explosive growth in China over the past five years on the strength of affordable EVs and hybrids.
BYD now believes “they have the right products to repeat their Chinese success in overseas markets,” said a third source, who was familiar with the automaker’s discussions with investors.
BYD did not respond to a request for comment.
Hitting the ambitious target of selling half its cars outside China would vault BYD – a middling player five years ago – into the upper echelon of global carmakers by vehicle sales, joining multinational juggernauts Toyota and Volkswagen. BYD unseated VW last year as the top automaker in China, the world’s largest car market.
BYD global sales have surged to a level just behind Ford and General Motors, from fewer than 430,000 cars in 2020.
FIRST CHINA, THEN THE GLOBE
BYD’s aspirations will likely fray nerves among executives at those companies as well as electric-vehicle rival Tesla, which sold 1.79 million fully-electric cars in 2024.
BYD and other Chinese carmakers have racked up China market share rapidly at the expense of once-dominant foreign brands by tapping cheaper supply chains to launch a flurry of high-tech EVs and hybrids. Now, many competitors losing to Chinese brands in China must fend off their incursion into Europe, Latin America and elsewhere.
Ford CEO Jim Farley called out BYD at a February investor conference as the leading threat in “a global race” to develop profitable EVs.
“We have to compete and win against BYD,” Farley said.
Foreign governments also have taken steps to shield domestic automakers from Chinese imports. BYD and other Chinese car companies face tariffs on EVs shipped into the European Union, although they continue to roll out new models there. The EU is in talks with China that could reduce or eliminate those tariffs.
In the U.S., far higher tariffs and a looming ban on Chinese EV software and hardware have effectively blocked Chinese automakers.
To reach its global-expansion goal, BYD must make serious inroads in major markets including Germany, Japan and India, said Tu Le, founder of consultancy Sino Auto Insights.
“It will be pretty challenging to reach that goal without access to the U.S. market,” he said.
Le estimates BYD’s global sales growth will slow to hit 5 million units this year, with about 80% of that coming in China.
An eventual 50/50 split would likely translate into total annual sales of 10 million cars – rivaling Toyota, the world’s largest automaker last year with 10.7 million vehicles in 2024.
GROWING PAINS
Unlike Tesla, which has an EV-only approach, BYD has an extensive lineup of both fully-electric cars and plug-in hybrids. It is also expected to pass Tesla this year as the world’s top seller of fully electric cars.
Still, BYD’s early overseas expansion has come with growing pains. Reuters reported last month that BYD has been overhauling its European operations after strategic missteps.
BYD’s sales in Europe more than quadrupled in the first quarter versus the same period in 2024 to 37,201 cars, giving it a 4.1% share of the continent’s EV market, according to research firm Rho Motion.
BYD’s global growth is backed by a building spree. The company aims to open a Hungary plant this year, followed by one in Turkey next year and expects to pick a location for a third European plant soon. It opened a car assembly plant in Thailand last year. Another plant has been under construction in Brazil, though it has been dogged by reports of abusive conditions for Chinese workers.
Bill Russo, CEO of Shanghai-based advisory firm Automobility, compared BYD’s progress on EVs to Ford’s instrumental role in mass-produced vehicles a century ago.
BYD chairman Wang Chuanfu, he said, is “the Henry Ford of the 21st century.”
BYD will likely hit the target of selling half its cars overseas, Russo said, where it faces less competition.
“The biggest problem they have is rising competition at home,” Russo added.
($1 = 7.2158 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting By Nick Carey and Brenda Goh; additional reporting by Victoria Waldersee and Katrina Hamlin in Shanghai, Giulio Piovaccari in Milan and Nora Eckert in Detroit; editing by Mike Colias, Brian Thevenot and Aidan Lewis)
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