A wide-open, almost ice-free Lake Michigan as seen from Point Beach State Forest in Manitowoc County, Wisconsin on February 13th, 2024. PC: Fox 11 Online
(WTAQ-WLUK) — Take a trip to Point Beach State Forest right now and you’ll see nothing but open water out to the horizon.
That wouldn’t be so unusual, if it wasn’t the middle of February.
Meteorologist and researcher Bryan Mroczka with the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory says this winter is unlike any on record.
“We have about 51 years of reliable ice data on the lakes, and for this time of February, we have never seen ice this low in the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes as a basin are at historic lows. Lake Superior, Michigan and Huron are all at their historic lows for this time of year,” said Mroczka.
Currently less than 3% of the lakes have ice cover. The long-term average is over 35% at this point in the winter — more than 10 times our current ice cover.
When the lake is this open for this much of winter, it can lead to a lot of evaporation and lower lake levels. But that’s not necessarily the case this winter.
“The lakes aren’t frozen, but they’re still cold,” said Mroczka. “So, when the water temperatures get down to where they are right now, you need real cold air to really evaporate off them. And we’re not seeing that cold air, so the evaporation is being kept in check. It’s occurring, but it’s being kept in check.”
Just four years ago, Lake Michigan reached record high levels in 2020. But the Great Lakes watershed has since returned to a much more balanced state.
The latest forecast for the Lake Michigan-Huron basin from the Army Corps of Engineers indicates that levels might be a touch lower than last year, but they are still forecast to remain just slightly above the long-term average.
So, if this forecast verifies, that means there will still be plenty of beach to enjoy this summer — and also still plenty of water for boating and other recreation on the lake as well.
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