Hello old friend.
The Battle of the Bays is renewed on Sunday as the 1-1 Green Bay Packers return to Tampa Bay to meet the 2-0 Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. The contest kicks off at 3:25 PM CST. These two were NFC Central rivals from 1977 through 2001 when realignment moved the Bucs to the NFC South Division. There have been some memorable affairs between the clubs with Green Bay holding a 32-22-1 advantage in the all-time series. I recall the one tie, a 14-14 game at the Old Sombrero in 1980 where Lynn Dickey threw for a then team record 418 yards only to see journeyman kicker Tom Birney miss a couple of short field goals. Brett Favre and Warren Sapp had their fair share of battles in the 1990’s. The teams have split two post-season games, Favre getting over the Bucs in 1997 at Lambeau Field. Tampa’s playoff win is still fresh on the minds of Aaron Rodgers and company, the devastating loss to Tom Brady and the Bucs when Green Bay finally hosted the NFC Championship Game only to come up short a step away from the Super Bowl, which Brady captured, giving him a ridiculous 7 rings. This will be the 5th time the two future Hall of Famers will be on the same field, Brady holds a 3-1 advantage including his days in New England.
The big storyline all week is how the wide receiver rooms in both cities have been thinned out by injury. In Tampa, Mike Evans will serve his one game suspension Sunday. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones missed last week’s game in New Orleans and haven’t practiced all week. Russell Gage and Scotty Miller both showed up on the injury report too. The Bucs had to sign veteran Cole Beasley this week to add depth.
In Green Bay, Randall Cobb has missed all week with an illness and on Thursday, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson didn’t practice because of hamstring and ankle issues. Open tryouts for both teams might be held Saturday at Raymond James.
It’s an important game in the NFC pecking order that could loom large at season’s end if both clubs reach the post-season. Let’s break it down.
When the Packers have the ball.
Tampa’s defense is off to a dominant start, allowing 13 points in two games, coming up with 10 sacks and six takeaways. Head Coach Todd Bowles, a long-time defensive coordinator dials up a unique pressure package with talent to get results. The inside linebacking tandem of Devin White and Lavonte David may be the best in the business. White, rushing up the middle, leads the team with three sacks. The offensive line will have to have expert communication to handle protection and blitzers. Aaron Rodgers mentioned Wednesday this will have to be an “on-time” game for the offense. Receivers getting to their spot on time and the ball getting out maybe a tick ahead of time for completions. The running game got to the edge against the Bears last Sunday with success, those two inside backers are very good at chasing down wide zone runs so look for a little more A.J. Dillon than Aaron Jones on the ground. The Packers best bet might be hammering Dillon right at the Bucs front between the tackles if they can find a way to move nose tackle Vita Vea and get bodies on David and White. If the young receivers have to play a significant role, Rodgers may turn to other matchups in the passing game. This is where Jones might excel, as a receiver split wide or with screens. The tight ends might be another option. I have a feeling Robert Tonyan will get more targets with Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis given a chance to make key plays. Explosive plays are hard to come by in Florida and patience will be required all afternoon.
When the Buccaneers have the ball.
The Packer secondary all but eliminated Chicago’s passing attack last week with a group of pedestrian receivers and a young quarterback. They may see more pedestrian receivers Sunday but with a legend pulling the trigger in Tom Brady. A key will be quick pressure on Brady and look for Green Bay defensive coordinator Joe Barry to start calling more blitzes. All-Pro center Ryan Jensen is on injured reserve, last year’s third round pick Robert Hainsey has taken over and the Bucs start a rookie at left guard in Luke Goedeke, a Valders, Wisconsin native. The Packer rush will try to apply the heat through those two with Preston Smith and Rashan Gary collapsing the edge as fast as possible leaving Brady to either unload it fast or get hit. Leonard Fournette can still pound out yards, he has 192 of the team’s 224 rushing yards so far. The tackling must improve from last week’s showing where the Bears put up 180 yards and Barry said his unit missed 9 tackles on just two big runs of 27 and 28 yard in the 4th quarter of that game.
The bottom line.
If both sides had their full compliment of players, I’d say Tampa Bay would have the advantage. Their defense has been much more stout and they’re playing at home in what’s expected to be a warm afternoon. The Packers should hang in there if they keep mistakes to a minimum. They reduced their turnovers from 2 to 1 n the first two games and the Pack is the least penalized team in the league out of the gate. This should be a points at a premium day and Tampa appears more likely to be the stingier side.
I’ll take the Buccaneers 20-17.
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