LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is lowered slightly from last month as lower pork and broiler is partly offset by higher beef and turkey forecasts. Pork production is lowered on a slower-than-expected pace of slaughter in June and lower expected second-half carcass weights. Broiler production is lowered on second quarter slaughter data but is partly offset by higher expected production in the third quarter. Beef production is raised for the second half with lower expected carcass weights and lower thirdquarter slaughter more than offset by higher fourth-quarter slaughter. Turkey production is forecast higher based on hatchery data. Egg production is raised from last month based on recent production data.
For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised. Pork production is raised based on 2022 second-half farrowing intentions reported in USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, and expectations that farrowings in the first half of 2023 will be modestly higher. The beef forecast is lowered slightly on lower expected carcass weights in early 2023. USDA’s Cattle report, scheduled for July 22, will provide an indication of producer intentions for heifer retention and the 2022 calf crop. Broiler, turkey, and egg forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Beef import forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged from last month while the export forecasts are raised for both years on firm international demand. Pork import forecasts are raised for both 2022 and 2023 on the current pace of trade and firm U.S. demand. Exports are reduced for 2022 but expected strength in foreign demand early in 2023 supports a slight increase in exports for that year. Broiler and turkey exports for 2022 are raised on recent data; no changes are made to 2023 forecasts.
Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on reported second quarter prices and expected strength of packer demand in the third quarter; forecasts for 2023 prices are unchanged. The 2022 hog price forecast is raised on second-quarter prices, but no changes are made to secondhalf forecasts. For 2023, hog prices are lowered on the higher production forecast. The broiler price forecast for 2022 is lowered on current price data; no change is made to the 2023 broiler price forecast. Turkey price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on current prices and expectations of continued demand strength. The 2022 and 2023 egg price forecasts are raised
on current price strength.
Milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are lowered from last month due to slower expected growth in milk per cow. USDA’s Cattle report, to be released July 22, will provide a mid-year estimate of the dairy cow inventory and producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for dairy cow replacement.
Imports on a fat basis are raised for 2022 on stronger expected imports of butterfat containing products and several other dairy products, but imports on a skim solids-basis are unchanged. No changes are made to the 2023 import forecasts of fats and skim-solids. Exports on both a skim-solids and a fat basis are also raised for 2022, reflecting stronger expected exports of butter, cheese, whey, skim milk powder, and lactose. The forecast for 2023 fat-basis exports is unchanged from last month but is raised on a skim solids-basis with expectations of higher skim milk powder exports carrying into 2023.
The 2022 butter price forecast is raised from last month on firm demand, and the cheese price forecast is lowered on continued large stocks. The forecasts for nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are unchanged. With a lower cheese price, the Class III price is lowered while the Class IV price is raised due to higher butter prices. The all milk price for 2022 is lowered to $26.15 per cwt. For 2023, forecasts for cheese, butter, and NDM are raised on expected lower production, but the price forecast for whey is lowered on expected weaker international prices. With higher cheese, butter prices, and NDM prices, the Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised. The 2023 all milk price forecast is raised to $24.15 per cwt.
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