By Emily Rose
JERUSALEM, Aug 17 (Reuters) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party will choose its candidates to fight in October elections on Monday, with analysts saying a shift further to the right by many members could threaten the Israeli leader’s chances of winning.
The contenders who emerge from Monday’s primaries are already facing a brutal race — polls suggest Likud’s popularity has plummeted since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, and the party could lose a third of its seats.
Researchers said Likud could have an even tougher fight if its 140,000 listed members choose a roster of populist, hard-right candidates, at a time when surveys show more of its traditional voters want to head closer to the political centre.
“The gap between Likud party members and Likud voters and the general public has increased substantially, and this might have a dramatic effect on Netanyahu’s ability to win,” said analyst Nimrod Nir, at the Hebrew University’s Agam Labs.
NETANYAHU COURTING MODERATES
An Agam Labs survey published on August 11 showed more than half of Likud voters — 54.9% — wanted a more centrist government than Netanyahu’s current coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox Jewish and nationalist parties.
But just a third of the listed party members who will choose the candidates on Monday would like to see a centre-right government, according to the survey.
Two thirds wanted something similar to the outgoing coalition, formed after Netanyahu’s 2022 election victory.
The current government includes National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s ultranationalist Jewish Power party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism, which have advocated for depopulating Gaza and resettling it.
Netanyahu has been on a mission to recruit more moderate candidates, to balance out populists who have gained momentum in the primaries race.
“As Prime Minister of Israel, I intend to deepen the unity within us,” Netanyahu said in a video statement posted on July 22. “Therefore I will work to establish a broad national government, a stable government that will ensure our security and future.”
One senior former Likud member with knowledge of the party’s strategy said those efforts are so far not going well.
“If (Netanyahu) improves the list and brings better people then maybe he will succeed but he’s not going in the right direction,” the former party member added, without going into further details.
Four former and current senior Likud members, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the party was scrambling to win back voters who have drifted away since the last ballot.
A spokesperson for the Likud party did not respond to a request for comment.
FIFTH OF ELECTORATE UNDECIDED
In the Agam Labs survey — which polled around 1,000 Likud members and more than 1,000 voters — the divisions got starker when it drilled down to specific issues.
The current coalition has made concessions to the ultra-Orthodox leaders in its ranks who have been seeking to exempt their members from service in Israel’s conscript military.
The issue has become particularly contentious during the Gaza war, with non-Orthodox Jewish Israelis asking why they should have to shoulder more of the burden of the fighting in Israel’s longest conflict.
More than 80% of Likud voters want to see a rise in the number of ultra-Orthodox conscripts, according to the Agam Labs data, against just 65% among Likud members.
Such divisive topics could be pivotal in a vote where around 20% of the overall electorate describe themselves as undecided. Many of those are disillusioned Likud people that the party wants to win back, pollsters and researchers say.
“These are the people that are going to decide what’s going to happen with the election,” Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University, said.
(Reporting by Emily Rose; Editing by Maayan Lubell and Andrew Heavens)
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