(WTAQ) – As the COVID-19 pandemic continues and the presidential election inches closer, questions persist about how the conventions and campaigns will be conducted.
“I’m going to use an over-used word. It’s going to be an unprecedented election,” says UW Oshkosh Political Science Professor Dr. Jim Simmons, “Predictions now depend on a number of unknowns. Will the opening of the states lead to a spike in death and COVID contact? Same thing with the fall – is there going to be a second coming of the virus? All of that data is probably going to weigh in heavily on what happens both for the conventions as well as the fall campaign.”
Democrats have already pushed back their in-person convention set to be held in Milwaukee, and it could happen again. Republicans are less likely to move their plans unless local governments force their hand.
“In fact, it would be advantageous for the Democrats to do that because there’s usually a spike in support for candidates from each party during a convention. And coming in last is probably better than going first,” Simmons tells WTAQ News, “Trump has a lot more interest in having an in-person convention. He likes big crowds, he wants that kind of attention both in person at conventions and in the fall.”
However, the local governments could dictate whether in-person conventions will even be allowed by the time the events are supposed to be held.
“Both states have Democratic governors and Democratic mayors in both Milwaukee and Charlotte [North Carolina] – so there may be some limits on what the parties will do based on what local government does,” Simmons says.
The Democratic National Convention is set to be held from August 17th-20th. The Republican National Convention is scheduled for August 24th-27th.
As the parties hold potentially staunch differences in plans for their conventions, they could also hold differing beliefs in how the campaigns should be conducted following the impact of COVID-19.
“Republicans are much less concerned about the impact of the virus and much less willing to distance. So I think the Republicans will try to campaign more conventionally…Republican voters tend to be more rural, education is a divide – with concern over public sources of authority and science,” Simmons says, “The Democrats are clearly more concerned about the virus, and I think there will be a lot more distancing and less conventional campaigning by that party…Democrats do far better among younger voters, so electronic campaigning actually works for them fairly well.”
The presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden, hasn’t made many appearances and is reportedly spending time at home – and working to avoid potentially contracting or spreading the virus.
Another major unknown factor – the economy. While many pieces of the economy have taken major hits during the pandemic, it’s unknown how it will rebound – or what the impact of that rebound would be.
“Normally, the fundamentals would heavily favor the incumbent – particularly with the way the economy was doing prior to the onset of the virus. Now the economy is falling apart, but the question is who gets blamed for it?” Simmons questions.
So while things aren’t looking too good under Trump’s administration right now, it’s not necessarily his fault. But the way the economy comes back could have the potential to swing voters in either direction.
“Normally you would expect the current administration and the incumbent would be blamed for the miserable performance of the economy. Will the economy come back quickly? That’s another unknown. If it does, the president has been very optimistic about it and he might get credit for it,” Simmons says, “If the economy doesn’t reopen rapidly – and in fact, if it produces a large outbreak of the virus again – the president should be in trouble.”
The presidential election is set for Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
