By Anna Szymanski
Feb 27 –
Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend.
From the Editor
Hello Morning Bid readers!
Markets were jittery this week, as anxiety about the potential impact of the artificial intelligence revolution left investors nervous about their asset allocations and their future job prospects.
This week’s wave of worry was initially set off by a 7,000-word piece, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” published by research firm Citrini on Sunday. It made for pretty grim reading: the loss of millions of office jobs will destroy demand, plunging the economy into a deflationary tailspin.
Is that possible? Sure, in the sense that anything is possible. But when markets are being spooked by apocalyptic long-form blogposts, it’s time to ask if we are in the midst of an AI doom bubble.
The software sector got a slight boost on Tuesday when a new round of plug-ins from Anthropic highlighted the potential for AI upstarts to partner with legacy firms instead of replacing them.
But, as is often the case, fear trumps hope, and both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Thursday.
This was – perhaps surprisingly – after the announcement of another strong quarter from Nvidia – its 14th consecutive revenue beat. The $4.5 trillion chipmaker on Wednesday posted better-than-expected results for the January quarter and also forecast above-market estimates for current quarter revenue. Its share price initially rose, but then pulled back, likely because the good news was already baked in and concerns – such as rising competition and customer concentration – remain.
Meanwhile, two months into the year, the country with the best performing equity market by far is Korea. The benchmark KOSPI index may have slid slightly on Friday, but it’s up more than 48% in the year to date. This eye-popping figure might suggest fevered speculation is at play, but that’s not necessarily the case – and there is reason to believe it could still have room to run.
Moving over to M&A, the months-long battle between Paramount Skydance and Netflix to acquire Warner Bros Discovery appears to be over, with the former coming out on top with its revised $31-a-share offer.
Turning back to anxiety, another major source of it this week was the ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program. The two held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday.
While crude prices fell following claims that progress in the negotiations had been made, Brent crude was up again early on Friday, trading above $71 a barrel. Discussions will resume in Vienna next week, which means the waiting game continues.
One party that may benefit from the geopolitical noise is OPEC+. The volatile headlines have weighed on prices, giving the producer group cover to stick to its “balanced market” narrative, despite many facts on the ground that suggest otherwise. OPEC+ is expected to announce a 137,000 barrel per day increase in output when it meets on Sunday.
Speaking of energy, one would have needed a lot of it to stay up though all of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address on Tuesday, which clocked in at a record one hour and 47 minutes. It offered little in the way of new ideas for addressing Americans’ affordability concerns, with the exception of a plan to boost Americans’ retirement savings. The president also vowed to move forward with his tariff agenda even after a large portion of it was quashed by the Supreme Court last week.
One notable takeaway from the speech was the president’s claim that hyperscalers “have the obligation to provide for their own power needs” as they build out energy-hungry data centers to fuel the AI boom. The administration wants to avoid stressing the grid and pushing up consumers’ electricity prices.
But the pressure is already building, and whether or not companies cover their own power needs, ambitious AI expansion plans are likely to be hobbled by severe power-infrastructure bottlenecks.
It’s a reminder that instead of fretting about viral AI doomsday reports, we should probably spend a little more time considering the very real physical limitations that could slow down this technological revolution.
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As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead.
I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at .
This weekend, we’re reading…
JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Markets Columnist: Amid the flood of AI scenarios, one standout this week is the 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis from Citadel Securities, which offers a forensic rebuttal of Citrini’s viral doomsday thesis. It is intriguing that one of the world’s largest market makers felt compelled to counter a Substack post from a relatively small research firm. Jittery markets, anyone?
ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: This Reuters exclusive examines a Pentagon-created AI program to set prices for critical minerals. It is beginning with niche “spice” metals – germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten, where China now heavily influences pricing – but aims to expand to other critical materials, potentially revolutionizing how metal markets operate.
GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: Climate futurist Michael Barnard, writing in CleanTechnica, examines how the U.S. is entrenching legacy energy systems while Europe, China, and others rapidly build more efficient new infrastructure – and asks how capital markets will respond.
CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: This insight by Fastmarkets explores what the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism could mean for green steel, which has so far struggled to gain a foothold because buyers aren’t willing to pay more and governments have been slow to regulate its use.
We’re listening to…
RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: The latest Energy Unplugged podcast from Aurora Energy Research features a great conversation with Nat Bullard, co‑founder of Halcyon, discussing how the energy transition is unfolding very differently around the world.
And we’re watching…
MIKE DOLAN, Finance & Markets Columnist: I sat down with Carmel Crimmins, host of Reuters Econ World, this week to discuss how “middle powers” are de‑risking from the U.S., recalibrating their relationships with China and pursuing alternative trade deals in a multipolar world that leaves them with few other options.
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(By Anna Szymanski)
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