APPLETON, WI (WTAQ-WLUK) – Months of listening to campaign ads and pulling political fliers out of your mailbox culminates Tuesday, but what should you be keeping an eye on as the results come in?
The first candidate to 270 electoral votes wins the White House.
A good place to start on how that will happen is the map’s makeup from four years ago. That’s when Donald Trump won 232 electoral votes.
Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are the true tossups this year, according to Lawrence University history professor Jerald Podair.
“He basically needs to hold every other state he won in 2020 and pick up 38 electoral votes out of these states, and it could come in many different combinations,” said Podair.
South Carolina is also considered a swing state by many. Even Iowa, which typically goes Republican, could be in play after a recent poll showed Harris with a 3% lead among likely voters.
“If he loses Iowa, that is going to be very, very difficult for him,” said Podair.
In Wisconsin, 12 of the past 24 statewide races have been decided by less than 30,000 votes.
It’s a major reason why Trump and Harris were both here twice last week, including Trump at the Resch Center and Harris at Little Chute High School.
Their running mates also both visited on Monday.
“This is a classic purple state, which is why every second or third day, we saw a presidential or vice presidential candidate,” said Podair.
The purple shined brightly just two years ago, when Democrat Tony Evers and Republican Ron Johnson both won statewide races in the same election. A split at the top of the ticket hadn’t happened in Wisconsin since 1998.
Podair says that is unlikely to happen this year.
“I think it is less possible this time because there is a presidential race involved,” said Podair. “The first thing a Trump voter is going to do tomorrow, assuming they vote tomorrow, is to vote for Donald Trump…. I don’t think after voting for Trump, they’re going to check off Baldwin.”
If you’re following along throughout the night, it’s also recommended to keep in mind where votes are coming from. Results from the most populous areas, which tend to lean Democratic, usually come in later in the night.
Podair believes who controls the U.S. Senate will come down to races in Montana and Ohio.
He also says to keep an eye on Congressional races in New York to see whether Democrats can take control of the U.S. House of Representatives.
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