(Reuters) – Speculators raised their net short bets on five-year Treasuries to the largest on record in the latest week, while bearish bets on 10-year Treasury futures were the largest since January, according to data by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Friday.
Net short bets on five-year note futures grew to 1,695,072 contracts in the week ending Aug. 13, up from 1,688,076 the previous week.
Short bets on 10-year note futures rose to 860,243 contracts from 776,208, the data showed.
Bearish positions on interest rate sensitive two-year Treasury futures, meanwhile, fell to 1,104,606 contracts, from 1,105,211 the prior week.
Treasury yields have rebounded from more than one-year lows reached last week, when concerns mounted that the U.S. economy is rapidly weakening and due to a stock market rout caused in part by the unwind of popular dollar/yen carry trades.
Better economic data this week and hotter-than-expected shelter inflation in July has also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, with a 25 basis point cut now seen as more likely.
Other data showed that net short bets on U.S. bonds fell to 26,330 contracts from 57,855 and U.S. Long T-bonds short bets fell to 349,133 contracts from 376,662.
Below is a table of the speculative positions in Treasury futures on the Chicago Board of Trade in the latest week:
U.S. 2-year T-notes (Contracts of $200,000)
13 Aug 2024 week Prior week
Long 708,892 716,311
Short 1,813,498 1,821,522
Net -1,104,606 -1,105,211
U.S. 5-year T-notes (Contracts of $100,000)
13 Aug 2024 week Prior week
Long 599,507 578,521
Short 2,294,579 2,266,597
Net -1,695,072 -1,688,076
U.S. 10-year T-notes (Contracts of $100,000)
13 Aug 2024 week Prior week
Long 458,121 441,721
Short 1,318,364 1,217,929
Net -860,243 -776,208
U.S. T-bonds (Contracts of $100,000)
13 Aug 2024 week Prior week
Long 347,997 339,271
Short 374,327 397,126
Net -26,330 -57,855
U.S. Long T-bonds (Contracts of $100,000)
13 Aug 2024 week Prior week
Long 156,813 159,683
Short 505,946 536,345
Net -349,133 -376,662
(Reporting By Karen Brettell; Editing by Leslie Adler and Jonathan Oatis)
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