What a year it’s been.
On the first day of 2023, the 7-8 Green Bay Packers played the newly crowned NFC North Champion Minnesota Vikings. The Pack spotted the Vikes a 3-0 lead and then piled up 41 unanswered points in a 41-17 victory that proved to be the last hurrah for one Aaron Rodgers. The following week, the Detroit Lions denied Rodgers one last playoff appearance in what proved to be his last game in a Packer uniform. The final day of 2023 will have the 7-8 Packers playing the Vikings once again with a post-season berth hanging in the balance. The 364 days in between however brought about a monumental change in the direction of the franchise. Consider how the rest of 2023 played out.
The Packers cut ties with a host of veteran cornerstones from the 2022 team, allowing the likes of Mason Crosby, Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Marcedes Lewis and Adrian Amos to walk in free agency. Then came the bombshell of April 26 when right before the NFL draft, General Manager Brian Gutekunst traded Rodgers after 18 seasons in Green Bay to the New York Jets. The Jordan Love era at quarterback had begun. Draft picks acquired from the Jets allowed Green Bay to take Lukas Van Ness two spots higher than their original slot in round one, tight end Luke Musgrave arrived in the second round and the Packers used a sixth round pick from the deal to select kicker Anders Carlson. The spring also brought about a key departure on the coaching staff as secondary coach and defensive passing game coordinator Jerry Gray left for a a job in Atlanta. The Packers hired Greg Williams away from the Los Angeles Chargers. The National Football League announced the 2025 NFL Draft was indeed coming to Green Bay, a signature moment for President and CEO Mark Murphy. Training camp began with a collection of young players on offense and an experienced defense of which much was expected.
The September 10 starting debut for Love was a huge success in Chicago with the Packers winning handily 38-20. The Jets debut of Rodgers ended after just four snaps when he ruptured his Achilles tendon and was lost for the season. After two weeks, Love was the league’s highest rated passer. Things turned south quickly however thanks to a four game losing streak that stretched out over 42 days. A resurgent November with wins over division leading Detroit and Kansas City was dampened by the season long-underachieving defense in back to back losses to New York and Tampa Bay putting defensive coordinator Joe Barry’s future employment in jeopardy although Head Coach Matt LaFleur said he’ll stay on board through the season. A harrowing victory over Carolina kept the Wild Card hopes alive.
So here we go again.
Think about this. If Jordan Love can do on the final day of the calendar year what Aaron Rodgers could not in the early days of 2023, beat the Vikings and finish the job by beating Chicago at Lambeau Field next week, the new quarterback era will be off to an unexpectedly successful start. To do it with such a young supporting cast would be even more remarkable. Love has already won one game more than Rodgers did in his first year as Green Bay’s starter in 2008. The Pack went 6-10 that year with Rodgers throwing for 4028 yards, completing 63.6% of his passes for 28 touchdowns with 13 interceptions, good for a passer rating of 93.8. Love’s Packers are 7-8 with two games to play. He’s thrown for 3587 yards, at a 62.5% completion rate, with 27 touchdowns and 11 picks, good for a rating of 91.8. The biggest question going into this season was do the Packers have another winning quarterback in place? Nearly everyone, myself included, believe they do.
Now, can they ring in 2024 with playoff hopes still alive?
When the Packers have the ball.
Love may still be saddled with top targets on the sideline as Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks haven’t practiced all week. Jayden Reed has but whoever has joined Romeo Doubs on the target list has been able to make plays of late, guys like Malik Heath and even Bo Melton. The triumphant return last week of Aaron Jones (127 yards on 21 carries) will give the offense a big boost against a Minnesota defense that got bit hard on the ground last week by Detroit. The Vikings rank 13th in the league on defense and give up just 19.9 points a game, even posting a 3-0 shutout victory over Las Vegas recently. Despite the loss of linebacker D.J. Wonnum to a torn quad, Minnesota still has several disruptive players the Packers must deal with. Danielle Hunter first and foremost. He ranks third in the league with 15.5 sacks, Minnesota has 42 as a team. The offensive line must create movement in the run game to allow play action to become even more effective and protection of Love will be paramount. Under coordinator Brian Flores, Minnesota deploys a host of formations and looks designed to confuse a quarterback but Love and the offense have been able to decipher and produce against similar defenses much better as the season has gone on. A player opponents might be overlooking is rookie tight end Tucker Kraft who has become a valuable check down option and even explosive playmaker for Love to utilize. He could be in for a big night Sunday. After failing to reach the end zone until late in the third quarter against Minnesota in the 24-10 loss in October, early scoring success, on the road, is paramount.
When the Vikings have the ball.
The Packer defense has been unsettled all year and may be in a state of chaos at the finish line. Only showing glimpses of what they could be considering the draft capital invested on that side of the ball, the unit has had to deal with injury, the jolting trade of Rasul Douglas, the speculation over Barry’s future and now the suspension of Jaire Alexander for conduct detrimental to the team. Alexander returned last week against the Panthers after missing six games and while he didn’t play very well, I was looking forward to see the Alexander-Justin Jefferson matchup one more time. At Lambeau Field back on New Year’s Day, Alexander locked down Jefferson to one catch for 15 yards. How the Packers defend him Sunday night will be interesting. Minnesota’s offense however has been ravaged by injury, beginning with Cousins going down against Green Bay in the first meeting, to losing Jefferson for several weeks with a hamstring issue and the latest blow, tight end T.J. Hockenson blowing out his knee in last week’s loss to Detroit. Hockenson has been the primary target in the Vikings’ pass game with 95 catches for just under a thousand yards. Rookie Jordan Addison is trying to play through an ankle injury, leaving Jefferson and veteran K.J. Osborn as the only reliable targets for a rookie quarterback who will start. 5th round pick Jaren Hall of BYU was Head Coach Kevin O’Connell’s choice after both Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens became turnover prone down the stretch. The Viking run game doesn’t pose a serious threat so this will be all about Barry’s plan to disrupt Hall, cover Jefferson and limit explosive plays.
The bottom line.
Minnesota has to be reeling with the late season injury toll, having to endure watching the Lions celebrate their first division championship in 30 years in their house last week, and a young, hungry Packer team coming to town. This has to be a day for the defense to rise above the noise and distractions to keep the Packer post-season hope alive. A turnover free offensive day might just be enough. This is going to be one raucous New Year’s Eve party in Minneapolis.
I like the Pack, 23-20.
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