OSHKOSH, WI (WTAQ) – There are just three candidates left in the Democratic field for president – two of whom have a realistic shot at garnering the party’s nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this summer.
Joe Biden dominated the field, racking up delegates in nine states in the Super Tuesday primaries. That means Bernie Sanders essentially needs to perform well in every state primary leading up to Wisconsin to stay in contention.
“What I would say now is very different from what I would’ve said a week ago,” says UW Oshkosh Political Science Professor Jim Simmons, “Super Tuesday was pretty disasterous for Bernie Sanders. If the end of the month primaries go equally badly, the outcome of the election may have already been decided by April 7th. If that’s the case, you’re probably not going to see a lot of activity in Wisconsin.”
Candidates need 1,991 delegates to clinch the nomination. Right now, Biden holds 627, Sanders has 551, and Tulsi Gabbard sits in a distant third place with just 2 delegates.
Between now and the April 7th primary in Wisconsin – there are 17 primaries with 1,198 delegates up for grabs. The amount of delegates assigned depends on the percentage of votes received in each state.
So if Biden continues to build his lead over Sanders and Gabbard, there is a strong chance there would be no serious debate at the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this summer.
“The Milwaukee Convention will be interesting, but it won’t have the notoriety it would’ve had if there was going to be a contest there. I was expecting for there to be still three or four candidates that were in the contest. And projections were that the convention in Milwaukee would be a contested convention,” Simmons tells WTAQ News, “You would’ve had a contested convention that might be brokered. Now, it appears that this is reversed and that Biden might go into the convention not just with a polarity, but with a majority.”
But in the current political culture, it seems almost anything is possible. And having faults in a candidate or campaign may have serious consequences for their odds at winning the presidency.
“From the standpoint of the president, the primaries might not be over – but we’re already in the election season,” Simmons says.
President Trump has reportedly already expressed plans to use the affiliation of Biden’s son with the Ukrainian Burisma Holdings company as ammunition during a general eleciton. That became a focal point during President Trump’s impeachment hearings – and has recently had a federal probe launched into the dealings between Biden and the company.
Reports say that topic – among others – could be used in ways comparable to Hillary Clinton’s email controversy during the 2016 election.
But that’s not the only concern Simmons has for Biden’s campaign.
“There have been a lot of twists and turns in this election. Joe Biden is a seriously flawed candidate, so he could say or do something in the intermediate time period that could change the trajectory of the election,” Simmons says.
That intermediate time – is generally between now and the primary election in Wisconsin.
As for voter turnout in Wisconsin, Simmons doesn’t think it will necessarily depend on how competive the primary race is on April 7th.
“A seat in the state Supreme Court is up – so that’s probably going to bring turnout even if the preferential presidential primary doesn’t,” Simmons says.
