As I said when we first blogged on this over the summer; a model that's never been wrong is going to be wrong sometime. But the one thing on their resume that jumps out to me is that they got the electoral vote right in 2000 when President Bush did not win the popular vote. And they address naysayers:
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.
In fact, the polls have tightened considerably since they first issued this year's model. We'll find out in less than a month whether their record remains intact.