Tommy Thompson dismissed this as wishful thinking from a democratic pollster. But PPP did predict Walker over Barrett in the recall, although their final poll was closer than the actual margin of victory. Here's the interesting number:
It's the Tea Party putting Hovde over the top. Non-Tea Party Republicans split evenly between Hovde and Thompson at 31%, but Tea Partiers give Hovde an 18 point advantage at 39-21. There's reason to think Hovde's lead could get wider between now and the primary- he still has only 59% name recognition, compared to 84% for Thompson. Among the voters who are familiar with Hovde he leads Thompson 47-21, suggesting that as he becomes better known in the final weeks of the campaign his fortunes could continue to improve.
Despite all his advertising he still has work to do on name recognition. But his 26 point lead among voters familiar with both Hovde and Thompson illustrates(as the PPP points out) that he has room for growth. It also tells me his advertising has been tremendously effective. It's hard to believe that much of Wisconsin has missed his spots, but conservatives who have seen them seem sold. Can Hovde continue the upbeat advertising message? It depends on what happens around him (Thompson and Mark Neumann)
And national groups who've been waiting to invest in Mark Neumann's campaign; what do they do now? Club for Growth's mission has been "anybody but Tommy." If they invest heavily in Neumann now it all but assures it will be Tommy. And the conservatives who locked in early on Neumann as the anti-Thompson choice, what do they do if tomorrow's Marquette Law School poll shows similar results?