The final regular season home game for the Green Bay Packers against the Tennessee Titans should be a telling exercise in post-season readiness and it also could clinch home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs for the Pack. The 7:20 PM kickoff at Lambeau Field will finish Sunday’s week 15 play and if the Los Angeles Rams beat the Seahawks in Seattle earlier in the day, the Packers can lock down the number one NFC seed with a victory.
It will have to come against one of the more dynamic offensive teams on the schedule. The Titans come to Green Bay 10-4, sharing the AFC South lead with Indianapolis who defeated the Packers a month ago in overtime. They have the number one scoring offensive in the league (436 points), just ahead of Kansas City (435) and Green Bay (434). The Titans trail only Kansas City in yards per game. They feature the NFL rushing leader in Derrick Henry (1679 yards, 15 touchdowns), the 4th rated passer in Ryan Tannehill (110.4 passer rating) and two strong, explosive wide receivers in Corey Davis and A.J. Brown.
Green Bay’s offense has been among the most consistent in the league all year, but after a shaky second half in last weekend’s victory over Carolina, they’ve dropped to 4th in yards per game behind the Chiefs, Titans and Arizona Cardinals.
One other statistical note, both these teams know how to hang on to the ball. They each have turned the ball over just nine times in 14 weeks. Tannehill has thrown five interceptions, Aaron Rodgers just four.
Sunday’s matchup of division leaders will be about which defense will do the better job against the opposing offense.
When the Packers have the ball.
It was curious how the Packers went away from the running game last week after Aaron Jones produced 114 yards in the first half against the Panthers. Carolina’s defense was intent on taking away Davante Adams downfield yet the Packers more than once passed on run calls in favor of the quick throws out wide with Adams getting soft coverage at the line. It failed miserably, the Packers went nowhere and the Panthers battled back into the game.
They shouldn’t make the same mistake against the Titans, who rank 27th in total defense, 29th against the pass. If too many resources are applied to keep Adams from piling up big numbers, Jones should. He’s gone over 100 yards rushing in 4 on his last 6 December games. The preferred starting offensive line should be back intact with Corey Linsley returning at center. The Titans have had difficulty getting to opposing quarterbacks all year with just 14 sacks but their secondary still has a knack for playmaking with 13 picks. Interceptions however, are almost impossible to come by against Rodgers.
A big game from Jones will force the Titans to play Adams more honestly and well executed balance should result in a big night from the Packer offense.
When the Titans have the ball.
It has to start with Henry, obviously. The players and defensive coaches talked all week about getting as many hats on the ball as possible. Defensive backs have all seen the stiff arms and violent shedding of smaller tacklers once the corner is turned. Coordinator Mike Pettine said this week the biggest mistake defensive backs make is underestimating Henry’s speed. They’ll charge downhill thinking they have a solid line for the finish only to have Henry accelerate wide and get by them. Henry will get his yards. Letting an average game (119 yards) rupture into a big game, 200 or more (he’s done it three times already) will require a minimum of explosive runs. Krys Barnes and Kamal Martin will have to play disciplined when filling inside gaps, Jaire Alexander and Kevin King must be willing to get dirty if Henry comes their way.
The play action game becomes doubly difficult to control because Tannehill has faith in Davis and Brown on routes short and long because they are so physical after the catch and have speed to get over the top. The quarterback also has the mobility to hurt defenses with his legs as evidenced by his two rushing touchdowns last week versus Detroit.
The bottom line.
So which defense is better equipped to get stops? The Packers have had to endure 11 months of talk about how bad their run defense is since the NFC Championship steamroll by the 49ers. Outside of Dalvin Cook’s big day at Lambeau and an occasional explosive run like David Montgomery of the Bears last month, the Green Bay rush defense has not ruptured nearly as badly 0r as often and critics would lead you to believe. The pressure package is getting home more frequently of late. Alexander can all but eliminate one of the big play receivers. Well executed balance by the Packers will give Tennessee more trouble.
I like the Pack 34-31.
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