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WI Top Economist Touting Jobs Picture Signed Recall Posted May 16, 2012 by Jerry Bader

I posted the video the other day, I didn't know he was a Walker opponent. And this piece also does a good job illustrating the validity of the numbers Walker is now touting. Democrats are literally flailing on this; filing a complaint with the state claiming Walker improperly used the numbers in an ad. They are going to get very, very desperate.

 

 

MoveOn Shoots Up a Flare Posted May 16, 2012 by Jerry Bader

Kind of like the Titantic did, hoping somebody will respond. Somebody? Anybody? Buehler?

 

Subject: BREAKING: DNC underfunding the Wisconsin recall?

 

Dear MoveOn member,
BREAKING NEWS FROM WISCONSIN: The Democratic National Committee is refusing requests to fund the massive get out the vote effort planned in Wisconsin to recall Scott Walker.1
Wisconsin is ground zero for Democrats this summer—and there are only three weeks before Election Day—which is why this breaking news just doesn't make sense. 
Scott Walker and his right-wing allies have spent millions, and they'll spend millions more in the next few weeks. But Walker's poll numbers won't budge and if the Wisconsin Democrats can run the massive field program they have planned, we can win this.
Obama for America organizers are hard at work in the state, but the DNC's lack of support has left a huge hole in the get out the vote budget. So MoveOn members need to step up. Can you help recall Walker?
Wisconsin citizens, with the support of activists from all around the country, have accomplished more than anyone thought possible. They've inspired all of us, and put fear into the hearts of other governors who wanted to attack the 99%. But if Walker survives the recall, we'll have wasted a year of effort.
With only a few weeks left, the DNC is feeling the heat and says they may provide more help, but we can't wait for them. We have to do it ourselves.
Can you chip in $5 today via ActBlue to make sure that Scott Walker is finally recalled from office?

Thanks for all you do.

–Daniel, Levana, and the rest of the team

"Jobs" Posted May 16, 2012 by Jerry Bader

I post this purely to drive libs crazy. Just in case they don't see it on TV often enough:

A Little Reminder for our Recall Walker Friends... Posted May 16, 2012 by Jerry Bader

When they try to claim he gave no warning of us plans. A loyal listener remembered that I had posted this some time back. I agree with the listener that it's time to remind the left of this. the ATF sured seemed to know what he was planning. They warned against it, quite vociferously(for those of you from One Wisconsin Now, that means: loud, noisy, vocal, uproarious, boisterous).

Yet we're told this was all a mystery to them. Hum...

Marquette University Poll: Walker Over Barrett, 50-44 Posted May 16, 2012 by Jerry Bader

Throw out one poll this week that has Walker with a bigger lead, and it appears Walker has settled in with a roughly 5 point lead. PPP and Rasmussen both have him at 50-45. I feel that's about right. Here could be the most important number behind the numbers:

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.

I've said before that I think the key to this race are those on either side of the race that didn't vote in 2010. They'll make the difference this time. This could be an indication that conservatives who are typically unengaged in politics may be more mobilized than typically sideline sitting liberals. That would make the difference. By the way, the Presidential numbers showing an exact tie between President Obama and Mitt Romney in Wisconsin are also interesting.

Does This Take the Jobs Issue off the Table for Tom Barrett? Posted May 16, 2012 by Jerry Bader

Given the way he's reacting, I'm inclined to say yes. The lousy jobs numbers dems have been touting are survey results from 3.5 percent of the state's employers. These numbers are actual jobs numbers reported from most employers in the state. And they show:

- in 2011, WI added 23,321 jobs
-that is 57,221 more jobs than initial BLS estimates from 2011
- the actual numbers are consistent with the state unemployment rate and the drop in unemployment insurance claims
-DWD submits the actual jobs data based on approximately 160,000k Wisconsin employer submissions to BLS every quarter
- the numbers that were off by 57,221were based on a poll of just 3.5 percent of businesses, the actual numbers are based on submissions by 96 percent of businesses
- the actual numbers now submitted are consistent with actual revenue collections, the falling unemployment rate, and the drop in unemployment insurance claims

 

You can tell the Barrett campaign believes these numbers based on the way they are reacting:

"It is, I think, stunning that Scott Walker has suddenly found 57,000 jobs and gone from negative to positive three weeks before an election," said Barrett campaign spokesman Phil Walzak. "The timing is enormously suspicious. . . . Clearly the governor is losing the argument on jobs with the people of Wisconsin, and he's now trotting out these new figures in an extremely unusual way."

Walzak said Walker and his aides are now attacking the same jobs data (from the Current Employment Survey) that Walker has touted in news releases and campaign ads when those numbers have been positive.

 

Notice that at no time does Walzak challenge these numbers, which most economists see as far more reliable than monthly surveys. Walker releaized he had ammunition that normally wouldn't be released at this time, but nothing stops him from releasing it, so he did. What it doesn't allow is for a comparison with other states quarterly data. But it does provide a more reliable measure of jobs in Wisconsin than the monthly survey and the news is very good. Walzak is not doubting the validity of the good news; he's complaining about Walker releasing it now. That should tell you all you need to know.

Telemarketers Come up With Way to Beat the No-Call List Posted May 15, 2012 by Jerry Bader

I applaud ingenuity in finding ways around the rules, but this is a scam. Here's what the company's lawyer claims:

 

"Political Opinions of America makes calls on behalf of numerous political entities for the purpose of gauging public opinion on a wide range of issues," attorney Joseph Sanscrainte told FoxNews.com. "Political Opinions of America makes use of incentives for some of its survey programs, whereby the individuals contacted are offered a free service or item as a means to increase survey response rates. Political Opinions of America complies with federal and state rules governing the delivery of such calls."

 

If they're selling a product, which they are, then this is a scam.


Another Day, Another Poll Showing a Walker lead Posted May 15, 2012 by Jerry Bader

PPP's poll mirrors the Rasmussen poll, 50 to 45, with 2 percent undecided. Interesting how the Journal-Sentinel refers to Rasmussem as a Republican firm. I know a lot of liberals believe that, but it isn't the case. Somewhat surprising the Journal-Sentinel would report that. This puts a poll earlier today showing Walker with a 9 point lead to be something of an outlier.

This will all come down to those on either side who didn't vote in 2010. How many will show up on June 5th; which side will get more of those two pots of voters out?

A Crazy-Gram from Graeme... Posted May 15, 2012 by Jerry Bader

Or, a love letter to Wisconsin conservative talk radio, if you will. Graeme, of course, never leaves the deep end to visit reality. But this has prompted me to take note of something; most of Wisconsin's unhinged left is very, very quiet right now. Awhile back I started a feature on the show called "The Unhinged Badger," highlighting stories of the unhinged left in Wisconsin.

I haven't done one in weeks and there hasn't been anything that comes even close to qualifying. It's pretty clear that they are very, very worried about this election and the unhinged Badger appears to be hiding in the woods, waiting for June 5. In Graeme's case, he never could stand the conservatism has a voice on the radio. That came long before the recall. He can't help himself. But the rest of the lunatic left in Wisconsin is virtually invisible. Although they're trying to spin it, I think the huge Walker turnout shocked them. You're also seeing a lot more Support Walker signs all over.

Hopefully, when Walker wins, this isn't the calm before the storm.

How is Wisconsin's Economy Really Doing? Posted May 15, 2012 by Jerry Bader

I've been a little slow in posting this, so you may have seen this elsewhere. It's a State Revenue Department Video explaining the current state of Wisconsin's economy and where it's trending. Definitely a must watch.

 

 

Right up to Graduation... Posted May 15, 2012 by Jerry Bader

Yes, the liberal indoctrination at our universities continues right up to the moment those caps going flying into the air. When you consider the advantage the left has, in terms of dominating public education, K-12 and college, it's amazing the best they can do is play to a tie in politics in this country.

Sure, the counter argument is the right has money on its side. One, that's not entirely true and two, with this kind of head start in forming political opinion, it's heartening how many young adults manage to overcome it at some point in their lives.

WI Dems PO'd DNC Won't Dump Cash into Recall Posted May 14, 2012 by Jerry Bader

Actually, I'm surprised even national union forces aren't hedging their bets more.  I'm not saying they can't win this, but they've already blown $5 million on Kathleen Falk's failed bid. This is actually a very difficult call for the left. How much do they dump into this? Every penny they spend on this race and lose is one they don't have to spend on President Obama in Wisconsin in November.

And, as this piece points out, it's hard to say how much any money will move the needle and they're already going to be outspent 5 to 1, even if they get the help they're looking for. A tough, tough call.