The Bader Blog

I posted the video the other day, I didn't know he was a Walker opponent. And this piece also does a good job illustrating the validity of the numbers Walker is now touting. Democrats are literally flailing on this; filing a complaint with the state claiming Walker improperly used the numbers in an ad. They are going to get very, very desperate.

Kind of like the Titantic did, hoping somebody will respond. Somebody? Anybody? Buehler?

I post this purely to drive libs crazy. Just in case they don't see it on TV often enough:

When they try to claim he gave no warning of us plans. A loyal listener remembered that I had posted this some time back. I agree with the listener that it's time to remind the left of this. the ATF sured seemed to know what he was planning. They warned against it, quite vociferously(for those of you from One Wisconsin Now, that means: loud, noisy, vocal, uproarious, boisterous).

Yet we're told this was all a mystery to them. Hum...

Throw out one poll this week that has Walker with a bigger lead, and it appears Walker has settled in with a roughly 5 point lead. PPP and Rasmussen both have him at 50-45. I feel that's about right. Here could be the most important number behind the numbers:

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents. Democrats, however, are more likely to have been contacted by a campaign, 83 percent, to 78 percent for Republicans and 76 percent among independents. These rates are for all registered voters in the sample, not just likely voters.

I've said before that I think the key to this race are those on either side of the race that didn't vote in 2010. They'll make the difference this time. This could be an indication that conservatives who are typically unengaged in politics may be more mobilized than typically sideline sitting liberals. That would make the difference. By the way, the Presidential numbers showing an exact tie between President Obama and Mitt Romney in Wisconsin are also interesting.

Given the way he's reacting, I'm inclined to say yes. The lousy jobs numbers dems have been touting are survey results from 3.5 percent of the state's employers. These numbers are actual jobs numbers reported from most employers in the state. And they show:

- in 2011, WI added 23,321 jobs
-that is 57,221 more jobs than initial BLS estimates from 2011
- the actual numbers are consistent with the state unemployment rate and the drop in unemployment insurance claims
-DWD submits the actual jobs data based on approximately 160,000k Wisconsin employer submissions to BLS every quarter
- the numbers that were off by 57,221were based on a poll of just 3.5 percent of businesses, the actual numbers are based on submissions by 96 percent of businesses
- the actual numbers now submitted are consistent with actual revenue collections, the falling unemployment rate, and the drop in unemployment insurance claims

You can tell the Barrett campaign believes these numbers based on the way they are reacting:

"It is, I think, stunning that Scott Walker has suddenly found 57,000 jobs and gone from negative to positive three weeks before an election," said Barrett campaign spokesman Phil Walzak. "The timing is enormously suspicious. . . . Clearly the governor is losing the argument on jobs with the people of Wisconsin, and he's now trotting out these new figures in an extremely unusual way."

Walzak said Walker and his aides are now attacking the same jobs data (from the Current Employment Survey) that Walker has touted in news releases and campaign ads when those numbers have been positive.

Notice that at no time does Walzak challenge these numbers, which most economists see as far more reliable than monthly surveys. Walker releaized he had ammunition that normally wouldn't be released at this time, but nothing stops him from releasing it, so he did. What it doesn't allow is for a comparison with other states quarterly data. But it does provide a more reliable measure of jobs in Wisconsin than the monthly survey and the news is very good. Walzak is not doubting the validity of the good news; he's complaining about Walker releasing it now. That should tell you all you need to know.

I applaud ingenuity in finding ways around the rules, but this is a scam. Here's what the company's lawyer claims:

"Political Opinions of America makes calls on behalf of numerous political entities for the purpose of gauging public opinion on a wide range of issues," attorney Joseph Sanscrainte told FoxNews.com. "Political Opinions of America makes use of incentives for some of its survey programs, whereby the individuals contacted are offered a free service or item as a means to increase survey response rates. Political Opinions of America complies with federal and state rules governing the delivery of such calls."

If they're selling a product, which they are, then this is a scam.

PPP's poll mirrors the Rasmussen poll, 50 to 45, with 2 percent undecided. Interesting how the Journal-Sentinel refers to Rasmussem as a Republican firm. I know a lot of liberals believe that, but it isn't the case. Somewhat surprising the Journal-Sentinel would report that. This puts a poll earlier today showing Walker with a 9 point lead to be something of an outlier.

This will all come down to those on either side who didn't vote in 2010. How many will show up on June 5th; which side will get more of those two pots of voters out?

Or, a love letter to Wisconsin conservative talk radio, if you will. Graeme, of course, never leaves the deep end to visit reality. But this has prompted me to take note of something; most of Wisconsin's unhinged left is very, very quiet right now. Awhile back I started a feature on the show called "The Unhinged Badger," highlighting stories of the unhinged left in Wisconsin.

I haven't done one in weeks and there hasn't been anything that comes even close to qualifying. It's pretty clear that they are very, very worried about this election and the unhinged Badger appears to be hiding in the woods, waiting for June 5. In Graeme's case, he never could stand the conservatism has a voice on the radio. That came long before the recall. He can't help himself. But the rest of the lunatic left in Wisconsin is virtually invisible. Although they're trying to spin it, I think the huge Walker turnout shocked them. You're also seeing a lot more Support Walker signs all over.

Hopefully, when Walker wins, this isn't the calm before the storm.

I've been a little slow in posting this, so you may have seen this elsewhere. It's a State Revenue Department Video explaining the current state of Wisconsin's economy and where it's trending. Definitely a must watch.

Yes, the liberal indoctrination at our universities continues right up to the moment those caps going flying into the air. When you consider the advantage the left has, in terms of dominating public education, K-12 and college, it's amazing the best they can do is play to a tie in politics in this country.

Sure, the counter argument is the right has money on its side. One, that's not entirely true and two, with this kind of head start in forming political opinion, it's heartening how many young adults manage to overcome it at some point in their lives.

Actually, I'm surprised even national union forces aren't hedging their bets more.  I'm not saying they can't win this, but they've already blown $5 million on Kathleen Falk's failed bid. This is actually a very difficult call for the left. How much do they dump into this? Every penny they spend on this race and lose is one they don't have to spend on President Obama in Wisconsin in November.

And, as this piece points out, it's hard to say how much any money will move the needle and they're already going to be outspent 5 to 1, even if they get the help they're looking for. A tough, tough call.